It has been a surprising week, and not in the ways that I expected (see below). There has been at least one story each day in our local papers about the steps being taken by our local utility, Xcel, in planning the future of their electricity generating assets. While the pace of change in their planning is glacial by startup business standards, for a regulated monopoly utility it is lightning fast. 800 MW of new wind energy will be brought online over the next 10 years, and potentially 200 MW of new solar power. I am suspicious about the latter claim due to some confused and confusing statements by their spokespeople, but nonetheless their heart seems to be in it. Between planning to remove some coal plants and to increase their renewable energy sources, Xcel seems about as progressive as the very best regulated utilities in the nation. This gives me hope that institutional change is possible. These changes will result in a decrease in the percentage of power that Xcel generates here from dirty coal from 64% to 61% over 10 years. The rate is slow enough that we will lose all of our coral reefs and the northern ice cap within the coming decades, but at least it points in the right direction. I take heart that some of the ship’s crew have quit rearranging deckchairs, and are discussing whether that big white mass looming dead ahead might be a problem.
I intended to write this installment of Climate Milestones when oil hit $100/barrel, which seems right around the corner. But the release of the synthesis report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out yesterday, and in spite of several US attempts to water down the language, the consensus report is worth writing about. (I’ll spare you the note when oil hits $100/barrel, since the King of Saudi Arabia and T. Boone Pickens both agree it will be here in the short term.) The IPCC, you may remember, is the group of scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize this year for its tireless work towards assembling and analyzing the best data we have on climate change. It does complete assessments about every 6 years, represents consensus conclusions from 130 countries including the US, and has completed its most recent cycle last week. Full reports are here, and well worth a read. Important conclusions:
- Climate change is occurring rapidly
- Without human-caused climate drivers, the world would be cooling slightly
- If we cannot stabilize atmospheric CO2 in the next 10-20 years, sudden nonlinear climate changes are increasingly likely
- While the developing world will pay the biggest price, all countries will see major impacts
- 20%-30% of the world’s species will be in danger of rapid extinction without CO2 stabilization in the near term
- The rate of sea level rise, rate of temperature increase, and amount CO2 produced per unit of energy generated have all increased since the last IPCC report
- Sea acidification rates are rising, with a projected acidity increase of 25% to 100% over the next 50 - 100 years
- Mitigating these changes through energy efficiency and renewable technologies will cost a world GDP growth slowdown of 0.12% or 1/8th of 1%
To personalize the numbers: I enjoy diving on coral reefs, soaking in the vibrancy and colors of the swaying sea fans and their darting colorful fish. The peace and wonder of visiting these temples of the seas are an experience we owe to future generations. If we do not change our habits, we will not deliver the world’s children the same options we were given. The reefs of the world are dying from a combination of warming seas and reduced carbonate ion due to acidification. My nephews may delight to see clownfish playing in the anemones, but their children probably will not. The shallow corals of our coasts are the proverbial canary in the coal mine.
The coming loss of world corals is a tragedy, a slow-moving crime. The coal power plants and Hummers must go the way of the dinosaurs, or the coral reefs will. Without radically increased efficiency practices and radically cleaner power, we are at risk of both scarcity and tragedy. Human tendency is to avoid bad news, but responsible behavior is to assess consequences. Leadership requires hard choices, and the most powerful leadership is by example. If we are to answer the call of service to our country and our humanity, we must respond personally.
“Sentiment without action is the ruin of the soul.” – Edward Abbey
The false choice offered by many commentators, from Bjorn Lomborg to Rush Limbaugh, is that we will have to ruin our economy to address climate change today. This dichotomy is an illusion: there is no either/or choice at work here. We have a car that is overheating – the radiator needs repair. Should we repair it today, tomorrow, or never? What repairs will be effective? Earlier repairs are cheaper, and we can potentially blow the engine if we are not careful. There is no used-planet lot nearby that I can see, so we probably have to keep the one we have running smoothly, or suffer. Delayed maintenance and repairs kill cars – I know this through painful personal experience. The same is now true for our home that we will bequeath to our kids.
The American view of increased efficiency seems to be a mental picture of ‘freezing in the dark’ when nothing could be further from the truth. I have replaced about half of the light bulbs in my home with compact fluorescents, and as part of a kitchen remodel I purchased new but relatively inexpensive appliances. Not only has my quality of life been improved, my electricity usage has dropped by 15%. I made these changes for other reasons, but a notable benefit has been reduced bills. Efficiency improvements such as increased insulation and efficient light bulbs pay off in reduced costs within a few years, and there is less freezing and less dark involved.
To move ahead to a cleaner tomorrow means having a focused will and putting our money where our mouths are. Our current Congress is preparing to pass an energy bill that declines to extend or increase subsidies for renewable energy in order to keep in place supports for oil, gas, and coal. Under intense lobbying pressure and partisan opposition, Reid and Pelosi are preparing to abandon the attempts to stimulate further development of renewable energy resources in order to preserve feeble changes in the auto mileage standards that are still far less than we need. This is another false dichotomy – a fool’s choice. Coupled with the Bush administration promise to veto any energy changes except for increased subsidies for ethanol and nuclear, our federal representatives are still taking a pass on being responsible stewards of our policy. Details on how to express your opinion on this bill are found at the Solar Energy Industries Association website.
I realize this has been a longer note than usual, with fewer links and pictures. The time continues to shorten for action, CO2 remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years and in the oceans for thousands, and new data only increases my conviction that this slow-moving emergency is of the same magnitude as nuclear proliferation. I will leave you with a graph of how the US has funded energy research over the past few decades. Most of this has not been for renewable sources, by the way. For perspective, keep in mind that the war in Iraq will run between $500 billion and a trillion dollars by its conclusion. I need your help in raising a cry for governmental and private focus on climate change and clean energy development. Most of the positive changes being made by Xcel and others will come too little and too late without additional encouragement from you and me. The rapidly melting iceberg lies ahead.
